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Evidence-based planning
Despite the growing awareness of the need for evidence-based policy making at the national and regional levels, authorities still do not have access to all the information required to make the decisions involved in comprehensive spatial planning.
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Sharing intelligence with other local initiatives (e.g. community strategies, local transport plans and housing renewal strategies) will help authorities to start developing ‘spatial’ evidence bases that go beyond land-use planning matters. In particular, data and information obtained from other strategies may assist with the development of contextual indicators for local development frameworks.
Baseline information consists of many indicators, and both quantitative and qualitative information can be used for this purpose. To get the best value from baseline information, it needs to be kept up-to-date rather than merely being a snapshot of the situation at a particular time. Sufficient information about the current and likely future state of the area covered by the spatial plan needs to be collected to allow effects to be adequately predicted.
There are five main areas with significant scope for strengthening the evidence base for regional planning:
- Understanding underlying causes. The challenge is to build on (largely quantitative) analyses of current regional conditions and recent trends, to strengthen the understanding (partly through a greater focus on qualitative issues and evidence) of underlying causal factors, structural issues and drivers for change.
- Using Longitudinal Evidence. As well as analysis weighted towards cross-sectional evidence of current conditions, there is scope for greater use of longitudinal evidence on past trends and future projections. This would enhance understanding of the nature of structural trends, causal factors, and relationships across different policy areas, and provide a more robust basis for the development and testing of future scenarios.
- Better interpretation of data analysis and modelling. There is scope to develop clearer, more transparent and participative approaches to the way in which evidence informs policy choices. There is a need for evidence to be based on realistic and consistent assumptions, and for it to be used to consider and test the implications of a range of likely outcomes.
- Testing the economic implications and market reality of policy. It is important that policy-makers use a strengthened economic evidence base and a more robust approach to market testing, to improve understanding and questioning of the economic implications of adopting specific policy positions on the scale, type and location of development.
- Integrating evidence across different policy areas and policy-making exercises. There is scope for better integration and synthesis of thematic, sector-based, and spatially-focused evidence and studies to strengthen understanding of linkages and inter-relationships between policies in different areas (for example, understanding of how housing provision affects economic competitiveness).
It is important to carefully plan the process by which a region gathers the necessary evidence base, to schedule this in advance, and to ensure that early liaison between stakeholders establishes areas of common evidence that can usefully be built up. Early consideration should also be given to work with adjacent regions on cross-boundary issues, and when and how stakeholders will be involved in the process. Developing the evidence base is not just something to be done at the beginning of the strategy development process – it should be integral throughout
Key lessons from current practice
- Consider the benefits of assembling qualitative evidence as well as quantitative.
- Build capacity to engage the business community in developing the evidence base and in market testing options, using development agents as proxies if necessary.
- Devote resources to understanding longer-term structural trends and underlying drivers, as well as to understanding the current state of the region and its characteristics.
- Beware of the limitations of different datasets, but do not over-rely on particular data sources because they are readily available and up-to-date.
- Use judgement to interpret the outcome of data analysis and any modelling, but make this explicit. Do not rely on a ‘technical black box’. Avoid the use of jargon.
- Be transparent on how evidence is used to justify a preferred strategy or policy.
The main types of evidence
In the UK, official statistics on demographic, economic, commercial, social, and environmental issues are typically sourced from the Office for National Statistics and central government departments. They are usually made available at some or all of national, regional and local authority levels. There is a problem in sourcing reliable data for areas that cut across local authority boundaries such as sub-regions or city-regions.
Regional monitoring of the performance of a region, including its relative position against national trends, is an important part of the evidence base. Most regions now have monitoring systems in place, although they are in significantly different stages of evolution, and there is still scope for improving the coordination of data collected at local level. There is scope for improvement in monitoring the effectiveness of existing regional policy, while recognising the limitations if this has only been in existence for a few years.
Topic-based studies are often commissioned to fill data gaps or where non-standard patterns and trends have been identified. Examples range from sector-specific assessments to centre hierarchy studies.
Qualitative evidence also has an important role. There has been a strong tendency to underplay the usefulness of qualitative techniques. Recent developments in the theory and use of such approaches have overcome some of the previous criticisms. Carefully analysed qualitative, non-traditional data sources can be important in understanding behavioural aspects of regional patterns and trends, for example where people prefer to live and why.
Brainstorming with key actors and stakeholders to establish thinking on alternative futures can be useful. The aim is not to predict the ‘right’ answer, but to encourage people to think of economic and social possibilities that stretch current thinking in the region. This would be followed up by additional research into the important questions raised by these futures.
It is important that a comprehensive and shared evidence base be agreed through consultation and that it is presented in a clear and persuasive way, both to ensure transparency and to strengthen the ability of the planning authority to feed into and influence other key regional strategies, and national and regional policies.
Local Development Framework Monitoring: A Good Practice Guide, The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister 2005
